PGA Tour launches champion prediction feature
The newest feature - "Win Probabilities" - is hosted by Mike Vitti. He is the vice president of data science and technology solutions in the US first-class golf arena.
The project took three years to be completed, when it was started from the time of social distancing because of the Covid-19 outbreak. It is an algorithm that considers the "past" and "future" expertise of each player. It takes all the detailed volatility data such as round points, hole scores, shot performance, putts, standard greens, final results... and thereby estimates the corresponding stats for the hole or lap. upcoming.
For each player, the algorithm will run 10,000 simulations to forecast the possibility of winning the cup with a frequency of 15 seconds for each update to the leaderboard to keep abreast of field developments. The PGA Tour each season has about 30 tournaments with the maximum list of matches – 156 hands.
"The process is very complex and continuous because the input parameters are always changing throughout the round. Sometimes a golfer is warming up at the practice field but his chances of passing or winning have changed as his peers have changed. someone scored a birdie or a bogey on the 3rd hole", Vitti Vice President in charge shared on pgatour.com on the opening day of "Win Probabilities".
As the St Jude Championship approaches round 1, the top 3 "Win Probabilities", from the top include Scottie Scheffler (8.4%), Jon Rahm (6.8%) and Rory McIlroy (5.4%). This order is also reflected in the ranking of average strokes per round since the beginning of the season. In addition, Scheffler is also ranked first in terms of performance on greens, standard greens, number of finishes in the top 10 as well as leading the prize table. In these statistics, Rahm is in the top 3.
This tournament together with the BMW Championship and Tour Championship in the next two weeks will decide the owner of the FedEx Cup - the final champion of the PGA Tour season 2022-2023.
In this race, Rahm is at the top of the scoreboard, followed by Scheffler and McIlroy respectively. This is largely the result of Rahm winning four cups, including the major Masters in April, and six top 10 finishes across 17 tournaments. Scheffler and McIlroy both won two championships. However, Scheffler hit 20 tournaments with 13 in the overall top 10, all five points ahead of McIlroy when it comes to attendance and results.
However, on the world professional golf table, Rahm is third, just below McIlroy and Scheffler is at the top.
