Napoli - Milan: The historic threshold in the Champions League

Napoli has the opportunity to make history, although the challenge ahead is not simple. Luciano Spalletti's army has just lost 0-1 in the first leg, but has the home advantage in the second leg. Since the away goals rule no longer exists, Napoli only need to win one goal to send the game into extra time or shootout. They can risk attacking right from the start to find a goal, because if Milan scores first, the situation is not too bad for the host.

Napoli also welcomed the main striker Victor Osimhen back when they needed him the most. In the past four matches he did not start because of injury, Napoli only won one, drew one and lost two matches. In the 0-0 draw at Verona over the weekend, Osimhen came on as a substitute and almost scored with a shot that hit the crossbar.

Osimhen has scored 25 goals in 30 games in all competitions this season, trailing only Erling Haaland 47, Kylian Mbappe 32, Marcus Rashford 28, Robert Lewandowski 27 and Karim Benzema 26. All five players have never played in Italy. . Osimhen's scoring performance is also second only to Haaland and Mbappe, averaging 91 minutes per goal. In other words, he is guaranteed to score one goal per game for Napoli if he plays the whole game. At this point, coach Luciano Spalletti has no reason to keep Osimhen, when Napoli has almost certainly won the scudetto.

The match between Osimhen and Rafael Leao will be expected, because both are in good form. Since the beginning of the 2021-2022 season, Leao has scored 25 goals and assisted 18 times. He also ranks first among the players in Italy in terms of dribbling or pulling the ball to create chances. Leao also scored twice to help Milan beat Napoli 4-0 at Diego Armando Maradona on April 2.

Despite Osimhen, Napoli lacked the mainstay in the bottom line, midfielder Kim Min-jae and midfielder Andre-Frank Anguissa because of suspension. Eljif Elmas or Tanguy Ndombele could start in place of Anguissa, in a three-man midfield alongside Piotr Zielinski and Stanislav Lobotka.

Milan has the advantage of force when coach Stefano Pioli has the strongest squad. They changed the entire main squad in Serie A over the weekend, keeping only goalkeeper Mike Maignan, so the main team can be more energetic than Napoli.

For Pioli, it seems that the goal of winning the Champions League is more important than standing in the top 4 of Serie A. After the 30th round of Serie A, they are fourth with 30 points, two points ahead of Inter, four points at Atalanta and nine points respectively Juventus. . But in the Champions League, Milan also has a chance to win it after 16 years. If they overcome Napoli, they will enter the semi-finals and can meet Inter. When they get to the final, anything can happen to them.

The situation of forces and performance of the two teams makes it difficult for experts to predict the return score. Opta's supercomputer estimates Napoli has a 58% chance of winning in the second leg. That means Milan also has at least a 42% chance of progressing. And there is a possibility that the two teams have to play extra time and penalty shootouts.

The British Evening Standard newspaper also predicted that Napoli would win 1-0 in the second leg, then score another goal in extra time to go on with a total score of 2-1. Sportsmole page again thinks that Milan can hold 1-1 after 90 minutes in Naples to continue with a final victory of 2-1. And Sportskeeda predicts the second leg is 2-2, which means the next place for the red and black shirt club. The chances of going through the two teams can be even, making this the most even match in the quarter-finals of the Champions League this season.

Napoli: Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Jesus, Rui; Elmas, Lobotka, Zielinski; Lozano, Osimhen, Kvaratskhelia

Milan: Maignan; Calabria, Kjaer, Tomori, Hernandez; Krunic, Tonali; Diaz, Bennacer, Leao; Giroud