Man City - Leipzig: Etihad fulcrum
Man City have made it past the last 16 of the Champions League five times in a row, and they have the opportunity to raise this streak to six times. Pep Guardiola's army has a slight advantage over Leipzig due to being played at home in the second leg, and their task is to win.
Etihad is a solid fulcrum for Man City, where they are unbeaten in 23 consecutive matches in the Champions League. They have won 18 of their 20 home games in all competitions this season. Their defeat includes strong teams like Arsenal, Man Utd, Chelsea, Tottenham or Dortmund. Their only defeat at the Etihad this season came against Brentford, while Leipzig's play is not like this opponent.
"Leipzig pressurizes high and kicks fiercely," Guardiola commented on the opponent before the second leg. "Their goalkeeper plays very well, the two full-backs are great defensively, and the remaining eight players always stand in the middle. If Man City focus on defending in the middle, Leipzig will hit the wide. If I put my troops to the border, the opponent will have the upper hand in the middle."
It is normal for Guardiola to praise opponents, but Leipzig's style of play often hates big teams. In the last four matches in the knockout stages of the Champions League, Leipzig has not won, scoring once and conceding eight times. Against the current Top 4 Bundesliga teams including Bayern Munich, Dortmund and Union Berlin, Leipzig also lost three and drew one and did not win a match this season.
But since the away goal rule no longer applies in the Champions League, Leipzig does not need to win to progress. They only need to draw with any score to send the game into extra time or penalty shootout. At that time, the opportunity for the German club will be much greater. If playing like in the second half of the first leg, Marco Rose's army can believe in this scenario.
"We have to find a balance against a strong team like Man City," coach Rose said on March 13. "Not only do they have Erling Haaland, but the other players are world-class. We have to play our best game of the season to get rid of Man City."
Man City has the strongest squad, while Leipzig lacks main striker Christopher Nkunku due to injury. He once scored a hat-trick on the field when Leipzig lost 3-6 to Man City in the group stage of the 2021-2022 season. The French striker, who has just returned from a long-term knee injury, has been absent again because of a thigh problem. Coach Rose also had to find a replacement for goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi and midfielder Xaver Schlager for the same reason.
Leipzig's attention will be on centre-back Josko Gvardiol, when he captured Haaland in the first leg. It was the Croatian central defender who headed the equalizer for Leipzig in the first leg, helping the home team to increase the unbeaten streak in the tournament to five matches. Gvardiol is on his way to becoming the most expensive centre-back in history, if he leaves Leipzig. And the 21-year-old's value will increase if he continues to silence Haaland tonight.
