Inter - Benfica: Waiting for the Milan derby in the Champions League

Inter have won nine times against their opponents by a two-goal margin in the knockout round of the European Cup, and they have all progressed. Therefore, the chance for Benfica to reach the semi-finals this time is underestimated, only 9%, according to FiveThirtyEight statistics. That also means 91% of Inter reach the semi-finals of the Champions League against Milan. "The reward for Inter next match is the Milan derby," wrote Italian newspaper La Gazzetta dello Sport.

Inter also has the home field advantage in the second leg, with the most powerful squad. They only missed center-back Milan Skriniar because of a back injury, and Stefan de Vrij left open the possibility of playing. However, coach Simone Inzaghi welcomes creative midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu back, while strikers Edin Dzeko and Lautaro Martinez have just kept their strength in the previous match.

The dangerous weapon on Inter's attack can also be on the bench, when Romelu Lukaku has scored nine goals in the last 11 matches for Inter in the Champions League. In the first leg, he also scored with Nicolo Barella to help Inter touch a ticket to continue.

There is a 91% chance of going on, so Inter also needs to avoid unnecessary penalty cards. Alessandro Bastoni, Federico Dimarco, Dzeko and Martínez will all be suspended for the next Champions League game if they receive a yellow card tonight.

Not only do Benfica have to play away, they also need to find a way to overcome a three-game losing streak in all competitions for the first time in four and a half years. They still lead the Portuguese championship, but have been reduced to four points by Porto, from 10 points two weeks ago. The positive point is that they welcome midfielder Nicolas Otamendi back after being suspended in the first leg, but lack midfielder Julian Draxler due to injury.

Striker Goncalo Ramos, midfielder Florentino and Joao Mario will also be suspended, but that is not a concern for Benfica. Their goal is to win by two goals or more to keep their hopes of reaching the Champions League semi-finals for the first time since 1990. "We will have to suffer to have a chance to progress," coach Roger Schmidt said before the match.

Opta's super machine predicts Benfica has a 28.4% chance of winning, but the important thing is the difference of two or more goals. Most experts do not believe in the miracle of the Portuguese club, with their performance in the first leg. The British Evening Standard, Sportsmole, Sportskeeda, Onefootball or Yahoo all predicted the two teams to draw 1-1 in the second leg, ie the final score 3-1 for Inter.

Derby Milan in the semi-finals, and a place for the Italian club in the final is almost certain.

Inter: Onana; Darmian, Acerbi, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Mkhitaryan, Brozovic, Dimarco; Dzeko, Martinez.

Benfica: Vlachodimos; Gilberto, A. Silva, Otamendi, Grimaldo; Florentino, Aursnes; Neres, R. Silva, Mario; Ramos.