Bayern - Man City: 'Gray Lobster' needs a miracle

Bayern has been a force in Europe in recent years. However, they all lost to Man City in the last two confrontations. This is the first time the team nicknamed "Gray Lobster" has lost two consecutive matches against this opponent. Five previous confrontations, Bayern won three, lost two.

Of the teams that have met Bayern at least five times in the Champions League, Man City is one of the three teams with a win rate of more than 50%, having defeated Bayern four times in seven head-to-head matches, reaching 57%. The other two teams are AC Milan (won four out of six games - 67%) and Real (10 won in 20 games - 50%).

The Premier League champions also have an impressive head-to-head record against German clubs when they lost only one, won 16 and drew three in the last 20 matches. It was a defeat against RB Leipzig in the group stage of the Champions League 2021-2022. Man City is still unbeaten - winning eight, drawing one - in nine times against German clubs when entering the knockout stage.

Meanwhile, Champions League history has only recorded four teams to reverse the situation after losing at least three goals in the first leg of the knockout round. Deportivo La Coruna won the final 5-4 Milan in the quarter-finals of the 2003-2004 season. Barca defeated PSG 6-5 in the round of 16 of the 2016-2017 season. Roma drew Barca 4-4 but went ahead by away goals in the quarter-finals of the 2017-2018 season. Liverpool beat Barca 4-3 in the semi-finals of the 2018-2019 season.

Statistics also do not favor Bayern coach - Thomas Tuchel, when he reunites with Pep Guardiola this time. After defeating Man City with Chelsea in the 2020-2021 Champions League final, Tuchel lost all of the last three times against Guardiola, and the German coach's teams did not even score a goal. Those are two defeats with the same score 0-1 when leading Chelsea in the English Premier League 2021-2022 and a 0-3 loss in the first leg of the Champions League quarter-finals last week.

"Obviously, we need a miracle. But I can't say the same to the players. You don't have to talk about belief with them, you have to be realistic. We believe in ourselves. If we play well in the half one, Bayern can come upstream. Luck needs to come to us in a few moments, which does not exist in the first leg. At that time, anything can happen," Tuchel said before the match.

Bayern doesn't just have to deal with external problems. The scuffle between Sadio Mane and Leroy Sane after the first leg left an aftershock inside the dressing room, which the Hoffenheim 1-1 draw over the weekend was a noticeable consequence. Having recently replaced Julian Nagelsmann, stabilizing the dressing room and calming the internals is not an easy task for Tuchel.

Meanwhile, Guardiola stated that Man City will not play defensively to protect the advantage from the first leg. The Spanish coach also urged his students to ignore the historical factor and not think about the score. The 52-year-old military leader does not want his students to repeat the unfortunate defeats that made Man City still miss the appointment with the Champions League.

"I used to coach Bayern and know how rich in fighting spirit they are. It exists in every corner of Bayern, ingrained in their blood. I know Bayern always believe they can turn the game around. Clubs like Bayern always try to build that mentality, an attempt to make anything happen. Bayern have that in history and we are working on it," said Guardiola.

Bayern will be without Manuel Neuer and Lucas Hernandez - two injuries that will have to miss the rest of the season. Eric Choupo-Moting's ability to play is still open. After a disastrous performance in the first leg, Dayot Upamecano is likely to be substituted, giving up the role of central defender Matthijs de Ligt to Benjamin Pavard. Phil Foden is the only possible absence from the Man City side.