Alcaraz is in danger of losing the world number one to Djokovic

The loss to Tommy Paul 4-6, 6-4, 3-6 in the quarterfinals of the ATP 1000 Rogers Cup on August 12 made Alcaraz lose the right to self-determination in the race to the number one position in the world after the US Open. The Spaniard is only 600 points ahead of Djokovic, in the ATP rankings updated next week.

Alcaraz only had to defend 10 points in the Rogers Cup, having been eliminated early last year by Tommy Paul as well. This year, he earned 180 points thanks to the quarterfinals and has 9,395 points after the tournament. Nole's score remained the same at 8,795, as he missed last year's North American hard court tournaments and withdrew from this year's Rogers Cup.

Alcaraz is about to defend 180 points in Cincinnati due to last year's quarterfinals, and 2,000 points at the US Open as the defending champion. Djokovic does not have to defend any points, because he did not set foot on US soil last year.

If Alcaraz wins in both Cincinnati and New York, he will earn 3,000 points. Subtracting 2,180 points to defend, the 20-year-old player will have 10,215 points. Assuming in both tournaments, Alcaraz defeated Nole in the final, the Serbian player would still earn 600 points in Cincinnati and 1,200 points at the US Open. At that time, Djokovic will have 10,595 points, to be number one in the world. In the case of being eliminated in the semi-finals of Cincinnati and losing the US Open final, Djokovic still tops the ATP table with 10,355 points.

Thus, the right to self-determination in the world number one race to the end of the US Open belongs to Djokovic. Alcaraz missed out on this self-determination, failing to reach the final in the Rogers Cup.

But Alcaraz still holds the advantage in the race to number one at the end of the year. After the US Open, Djokovic will have to defend 2,850 points because of last year's championship at Tel Aviv (250), Astana (500), ATP Finals (1,500) and second at the Paris Masters (600). Alcaraz only had to defend 360 points after the North American hard court season, including 180 points in Basel and 180 points at the Paris Masters - where he was injured in the quarterfinals and then missed the whole season.